A map of Covid data corruption — and the Covid approach that worked!

By Maxim Lott

Unusually candid look at the actual impact of Covid based on a review of excess mortality rather than reported Covid deaths.

Michael Lerner

Warning: This newsletter will will hit sacred cows from ALL political tribes when needed.

This post starts by mapping Covid around the world. First, in a “naive” way, taking official data — and then in a smarter way, using “excess mortality”, which also allows us to estimate a “fudge factor” for every country’s Covid data.

Then I draw lessons from the maps — what they say about vaccines, travel bans, lockdowns, and future pandemic responses:

How I started this research — Early media reports misinformed people about US deaths

When the pandemic started, media outlets loved to claim that the US had “the most Covid deaths in the world.”

But they failed to adjust by population! The US is a big country with modern testing, so of course it reported many deaths.

The media left that out and tricked many into thinking that America was uniquely bad on Covid. In fact, adjusting for population showed that America was then doing relatively well among its peers.

Nobody else had mapped out a population-adjusted map, so after being really annoyed about that for a couple weeks, I remembered that I should try to do something about it, and I created Covid19Mapped.com. Here’s what it looked like in May 2020:

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