By Mick Krever

An analysis by British academics, published by the UK Government’s official scientific advisory group, says that they believe it is “almost certain” that a SARS-Cov-2 variant will emerge that “leads to current vaccine failure.” SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes Covid-19.

The analysis has not been peer-reviewed, the early research is theoretical, and does not provide any proof that such a variant is in circulation now. Documents like it are released “as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency.

“The paper is dated July 26, and was published by the British government on Friday.

The scientists write that because eradication of the virus is “unlikely,” they have “high confidence” that variants will continue to emerge. They say it is “almost certain” that there will be “a gradual or punctuated accumulation of antigenic variation that eventually leads to current vaccine failure.”

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