The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides their most recent analysis of COVID-19 data in their journal MMWR. Titled “COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis—California and New York, May-November 2021” the report involves case and hospitalization rates by vaccination status.  The report offers new insight during the deadly Delta variant wave of COVID-19 as to just how protective was vaccination for example as well as prior immunity. Raising concern among many scientists, the topic of natural immunity hasn’t been extensively studied in the United States during the pandemic. There has been a clear emphasis on vaccination and designer drugs as a unified, all-encompassing response costing taxpayers what will probably total in the hundreds of billions of dollars when all is done.

The CDC’s data on natural immunity was underscored by a recent Oxford University study that showed it is more resilient than previously thought.

“In summary, we found that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 offers strong protection against reinfection with the highly transmissible Delta variant,” the authors wrote. “We also found that such natural immunity appears to persist for at least 13 months.”

Now the CDC starts an important effort to commence tracking, albeit in only a couple states, data associated with levels of projection against hospitalization and death associated with various variants of concern and vaccination level.  Covering  two of the most populated states (California and New York) the CDC probes data for those individuals fully vaccinated earlier in 2021 along with the likelihood of reinfection and/or hospitalization later in 2021.Subscribe to the Trialsitenews “COVID-19” ChannelNo spam – we promise

Investigating various categories of individuals from those who are unvaccinated to people, who never were infected with SARS-CoV-2, to those who were infected and had some level of natural immunity to those who were inoculated and never were infected with the novel coronavirus.  A key goal with this data:  just how effective (protective) is COVID-19 inoculation versus natural immunity for example.

Overall Risks

As shown below this graph source is the CDC MMWR report.  It shows the incidence of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19  (estimated hazard rate) associated hospitalizations among immunologic cohorts defined by vaccination and previous diagnosis histories from May 30 to November 13, 2021.

Note that the top line reveals far higher risks facing people that are not vaccinated nor have ever been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19.  Clearly this cohort faces far more risk than the other cohorts, as explained below.  Clearly the Delta wave during the summer raised the risk considerably for this more vulnerable cohort—the probability of hospitalizations shot up substantially during late June through late August then declined thereafter.

To summarize the data indicates people that haven’t been vaccinated nor infected with SARS-CoV-2 face the highest risk (hazard rate) for COVID-19 hospitalization.

What about other Risks?

Now addressing the next lines including the following

  • Vaccinated, no previous COVID-19 diagnosis
  • Unvaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis
  • Vaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis

Vaccinated with no previous COVID-19 diagnosis is the topmost lower line followed by unvaccinated, previous COVID-19 with vaccinated, previous COVID-19 diagnosis with the lowest hazard risk.

The data confirms first and foremost the power of natural immunity. While TrialSite has chronicled real world studies in the United States, Israel and elsewhere evidencing robust natural immunity data points for the most part health authorities in places like America have discounted this status—probably to incentivize vaccination.

In Europe for example natural immunity is recognized by several countries as a legitimate status for an exception for vaccine passports.

Summary & Some Food for Thought

The report finally reveals what many researchers and doctors have explained for some time:  that there is some absolute benefit to natural immunity. Now most of this report focuses on the Delta variant so this could change with Omicron or future variants, but the data indicate if someone has already been ill with COVID-19 they have a very low chance of reinfection and hospitalization.  Of course, the duration of that natural immunity is still up for debate—as is  the duration vaccine induced immunity due to durability issues.

What the CDC has started to address among vaccinated populations is the actual COVID-19 fatality rate.  Some recent interpretation of data in the based on UK freedom of information request Freedom of Information request on deaths following COVID-19 (FOI 21/918) – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) suggests the actual number of people in that nation that died because of COVID-19 is far lower than reported.

Moreover, an ongoing concern among many observers–scientific, medical and health policy experts willing to look past what’s currently politically correct topical matter– is the prospect of COVID-19 vaccine associated  serious adverse events. Obviously if these factors are undercounter (and it’s quite possible they are), the actual risk-benefit analysis of the COVID-19 vaccines materially change.

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