From Robert Kennedy Jr.’s Speech at “Defeat the Mandates” Rally, Washington D. C., January 23, 2022 (VIDEO: 1:55): “The other really disconcerting part of this pandemic response has been, what I call, the ‘information chaos.’ The use—the orchestrated confusion and fear by manipulating PCR tests and over-amplifying them. By changing the metrics on how death certificates are calculated. The complete absence of any good information on case fatality rates or infection fatality rates, or all the things that our public health agencies ought to be telling us so that we can individually, with our physicians, evaluate the risk, treatment, and prophylactic protocols. We weren’t given any of that information. The information we were given was badly, badly manipulated.”
These are all excellent points about COVID-19 pandemic information chaos, raised by Robert Kennedy Jr.in his Washington D. C. speech on a cold Sunday afternoon in January, 2022. In particular, I have written about Dr. Fauci’s confusing manipulation of case fatality rates and infection fatality rates during testimony to U.S. Congress in March 2020: Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation – PubMed (nih.gov).Subscribe to the Trialsitenews “COVID-19” ChannelNo spam – we promise
Kennedy even broached the misleading practice of ignoring the absolute risk reduction (ARR) and reporting only the relative risk reduction (RRR) in clinical trials for vaccines (VIDEO: 8:31).
Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Deaths
In his speech, Kennedy reported that 21 deaths occurred among approximately 22,000 people receiving the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine during the six-month clinical trial, compared to 17 deaths among approximately 22,000 people receiving the placebo.
Based on these data, Kennedy claimed a 21% increased chance of dying from the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. How did he arrive at his conclusion?
Ironically, Kennedy appeared to rely on the same statistical manipulation used by Pfizer in reporting the misleading vaccine efficacy—providing only the relative risk reduction without the absolute risk reduction: Outcome Reporting Bias in COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Clinical Trials.
In the Pfizer trial data for deaths, the RRR and ARR are negative, meaning there is a relative or absolute risk increase from the vaccine, rather than a risk reduction. Here are the calculations, using approximately 22,000 people in each group:
Vaccine deaths: 21/22,000 = 0.0954545%
Placebo deaths: 17/22,000 = 0.0772727%
ARR: 0.0772727% – 0.0954545% = -0.0181818%
RRR: -0.0181818% ARR / 0.0772727% Placebo deaths = -23.53%
The absolute increased risk of death in the vaccine group, or negative ARR of -0.018%, is simply the difference in group death rates—a miniscule increased rate of 18 one-thousands of 1%. This increase is much too small to have any clinical significance.
By comparison, the relative risk increase of 23.53%, or negative RRR of -23.53%, is calculated by dividing the ARR by the placebo death rate. The 23.53% relative risk increase is somewhat approximate to the 21% increased risk claimed by Kennedy.
Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Heart Attacks
In his speech, Kennedy also reported 5 vaccinated heart attacks versus 1 placebo heart attack in the Pfizer trial data. Kennedy claimed (VIDEO: 9:48), “If you take the vaccine, you’re 500% more likely to die of a heart attack over the next six months than if you don’t.”
In arriving at his conclusion, RFK Jr. once again appeared to rely on relative risk reductions while ignoring absolute risk reductions. Here are the calculations:
Vaccine heart attacks: 5/22,000 = 0.0227273%
Placebo heart attacks: 1/22,000 = 0.0045454%
ARR: 0.0045454% –0.0227273% = -0.0181818%
RRR: -0.0181818% ARR / 0.0045454% Placebo heart attacks = -400%
With a difference of four heart attacks between the groups during the trial, same as the group difference of four deaths, the absolute increased risk of heart attacks in the vaccine group, or negative ARR of -0.018%, is also a minuscule increased rate of 18 one-thousands of 1%–clinically insignificant.
Furthermore, a -400% RRR comes out much higher than the -ARR and approaches RFK Jr.’s conclusion of a “500% more likely” risk of heart attacks from the vaccine. It seems obvious that RFK Jr. was comparing five vaccine events to one placebo event, which is an increase of four events or a 400% increase.
By manipulating death and heart attack data of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent “Defeat the Mandates” speech in Washington D. C. appeared to contribute to the very same “information chaos” that he criticized.
Mr. Kennedy, I’d be happy to review any of your absolute and relative risk measurements in the future. Just contact me through TrialSite.